2026 Vietnam Brokerage Sector Credit Outlook: Beginning a New Development Cycle

Credit Outlook: STABLE – LEANING POSITIVE

S&I Ratings assesses the credit outlook for Vietnam’s brokerage sector in 2026 at Stable, while observing a gradual shift toward a Positive bias if securities companies effectively control risks. The brokerage sector enters 2026 with a strongly reinforced capital base accumulated during 2023–2025, landmark regulatory reforms, and the FTSE upgrade catalyst taking effect from September 2026. Counterbalancing these tailwinds are the high cyclicality of the business model, heavy dependence on VN-Index movements, a funding structure heavily skewed toward short-term borrowings, and intensifying competition that will force securities companies to accelerate investment in technology and risk management. Against this backdrop, credit differentiation will continue to widen between leading securities companies that benefit clearly, and small-scale, highly-leveraged firms dependent on a single business line.

Key catalysts

Credit-supportive factors (+):

• Strong recovery in business performance: Industry-wide net profit after tax in 2025 grew 67% to VND 39.6 trillion, total assets exceeded VND 900 trillion (+48% YoY), driven by all three segments – proprietary trading, margin lending, and brokerage.
• Capital buffer reinforced: Industry-wide equity grew 40% to VND 398.9 trillion. All securities companies in our watchlist maintain CAR above the regulatory threshold of 180%; the Top 5 (TCX, VPX, VCK, SSI, VIX) hold CAR of 500–900%, providing ample headroom for margin lending expansion and portfolio investment.
• Synchronized regulatory reform: The Law – Decree – Circular framework was reformed simultaneously, raising transparency standards, protecting investors, simplifying procedures, and expanding access for foreign investors. The Comprehensive Reform Plan for Vietnam’s Financial Market linked to high and continuous growth targets through 2045 is expected to be issued by the Government in 2026.
• FTSE upgrade catalyst: Effective from September 2026, expected to attract both passive and active capital inflows, boost liquidity and IPO activity, and open the prospect of an MSCI upgrade in the coming years.
• Optimistic signals from companies: The majority of securities companies are targeting double-digit to over 50% pre-tax profit growth in 2026, with large planned capital increases estimated at nearly VND 100 trillion, alongside an IPO wave extending to mid-tier securities firms (KAFI, HDBS, OCBS).
• Opportunities to expand the product ecosystem: The new regulatory framework opens the door for securities companies to participate in the digital asset exchange, the gold derivatives exchange, and the International Financial Center.

Credit risk factors (–):

• Dual exposure to market volatility: 47% of profit comes from proprietary trading and 39.2% from margin lending – both highly correlated with the VN-Index.
• Funding structure skewed toward short-term: 96% of liabilities are short-term; the quick ratio stands at only 43%, with a declining trend over the years.
• Large margin lending balance: VND 401 trillion (equivalent to 3.9% of market capitalization), significantly higher than international benchmarks (US 1.8%, China 2.3%). The margin balance/equity ratio reached 107%, with several securities companies approaching the 200% ceiling (HCM 194%, KBSV 188%, MBS 182%).
• Funding cost & FX pressures: Liquidity stress in the banking system and high credit demand could push interest rates up; FX volatility may hinder the attraction of foreign capital (foreigners net sold a record VND 135 trillion in 2025).
• Rising competitive and compliance cost pressures: A wave of bank- and conglomerate-affiliated securities firms returning with ambitions to build product ecosystems, combined with the AI/technology transformation race, will force securities companies to step up IT infrastructure and risk management investments; compliance costs will rise to meet stricter safety and transparency requirements.

Credit Differentiation by Securities Company Group

• Positive: Top-tier securities companies with strong capital bases, diversified operations, and a large traditional client base, potentially supported by their bank/conglomerate ecosystems (TCX, SSI, VCI, VCK, VPX…) – beneficiaries of the upgrade, with headroom for margin lending growth and stronger investment banking in a vibrant capital market environment.
• Stable: Mid-sized securities companies with clearly defined business models (FTS/Mirae Asset/KB focused on margin lending, firms leveraging parent-bank client bases…).
• Watch/negative: Securities companies with rapidly declining CAR, leverage approaching the ceiling, portfolios concentrated in ecosystem stocks or high-risk corporate bonds.